| 29 December 2016
ISIO - International Security Industry Organization published security predictions with incredible accuracy. The predictions were more in-line with specific issues that impacted on security and what-and-how to mitigate such.
The warning alerts for calling European security managers were timely and the method of attacks being lone wolf upgrading to a small attack team, and then to small teams working in concert was accurately predicated.
ISIO published the predicted assessment on the 2 types of volatile migrants which impacted on higher domestic violent crime and on the impact of polarized neighborhoods and NO-GO areas . The article outlined the impact on the lengthy period of time it took to locate and arrest the terror perpetrators in polarized neighborhoods and to bring attention to the organized crime cultural gangsters embedded in such neighborhoods that provided weapons and counterfeit documentation but also trafficking in illegal products and services.
Advice was published on how to identify current challenges and how to mitigate volatile behavior by recruitment of the right staff that possess skills to mitigate risks for current challenges.
From the outset - let us stress a particular fact. There are Muslims that kill Muslims so there is a very clear distinction between 2 groups. The one group is peaceful and the other are aggressive and deadly militant terrorists. There is no reason to hold the entire Islamic faith to collectively hold to account for the actions of a few!
In the USA, the divide between law enforcement and the Black Lives Matter movement fueled tensions in the community perhaps for good reason. Then it was fueled even more so by organized crime and criminals into volatile demonstrations and mayhem which impacted on the nationalist attitudes of both left and right.
The media exposure of European absorption of migrants along with the crime related such as, rape, the terror attacks, neighborhood polarization, and riots prompted nationalist fears.
The USA now is following the shift to the right in which some countries such as the UK (Bexit) and countries in Europe are doing. This indicates that nationalists of different countries are opting for dogged determination to retain their own identity.
Most the nationalists world-wide are opposed to the migration infiltration of different foreign cultures or fear religious polarization. Both left and right wingers will exhilarate volatile retaliation of those that oppose such and the globe at large is heading deeper into a multi-cultural war of thoughts and actions.
The left wing political demonstrations could be infiltrated by groups with vested interests that do have their agenda for keeping a high volatile atmosphere in theater. The organized crime uses these demonstrations to disguise their agenda for store theft during demonstrations.
There is an increase in specific demonstrations from humanitarian groups that are pro - gay, environment - woman rights. You may not find militants embedded in these mentioned groups.
Militants embedded into ''pro- humanitarian groups'', such as pro-Muslim, pro-Palestine that are focused on turning the local nationalist community against the host government and furthermore to recruit to radicalize people to their cause. One can see the impact when local citizens burn the flag or refuse to stand for the national anthem.
From now and most definitely after the coronation, the USA branded or aligned government, non-government institutes or companies [especially Trump Holdings or supporters of Trump] would experience increased demonstrations or be attacked.
Furthermore, illegals that have committed drug or rape related crimes, then the outcome will continue with demonstrations and riots would gather momentum. Reason being, is that there are militants and organized crime or illegal criminals that have a vested interest in ensuring an increase in volatile demonstration behavior or secondly, there are left wingers that strongly believe in their causes.
Global Security Managers in the USA should be highly concerned and switched on already condition red with operations and mobilization ready. The skills that are inline to mitigate current challenges should be sought and trained with immediate effect.
UK and Europe
Brexit has begun the shift to a more right-winged stance, similar to that of the USA mentioned above, however, it may be a gentler realization and reaction to such. Countries that can follow a stronger right winged presence could be France, Austria and Germany.
Migrants already in Europe or on their way to Europe will consider Ireland as their oasis-objective, as it may be perceived to be a supportive spring-board with an Irish citizenship and passport to the UK, or the USA.
Belgium, Denmark and Sweden will experience a stronger left wing insurgency and possibly a stronger drive towards neighborhood polarization by a stronger Muslim presence especially when motivated by any uprising and display of aggressive behavior of nationalists. There are certain countries that are on-path to State-Polarization.
It is quite normal for cultures and religions would live in a polarized neighborhood where their culture is the dominant culture that live in peace with the citizens of the host country. The difference between these cultures, is that, some cultures or religious doctrine use unacceptable behavior that is viewed by the host country, such as, low tolerance for woman's or gay rights. Furthermore, a small portion of the neighborhood population would use violence to enforce their beliefs which would incite aggressive response from the nationalists of the host country.
The impact in all countries, when there is any Islamic Militant terror attack then the right wing will retaliate with counter demonstrations, increased harassment in neighborhoods or workplace and bullying will drive Muslims into a common neighborhood which will be polarized. Organized Muslim crime organizations will feed on the services rendered such as, trafficking in illegal products & services and motivate the tendency towards the barricaded no-go areas, similar, to ones established in some European neighborhoods.
All European countries will experience increased demonstrations and attacks and especially on USA branded institutions and companies besides their own in their own countries or companies inside or outside their relative country.
Africa and Arabia will continue to experience the migration of people from their countries to Europe, USA and within Africa to South Africa.
Africa has 54 countries which lends itself to many influences that impact safety and security. The security issues differ on different aspects and assets to those of the West, for example - mining and crime. 'Blood diamonds', or Marine Piracy off the West coast of Africa. The risks will continue as is is habitual with vested interested economic controlled political influences or organized crime.
Attacks will increase on the African continent and even more so on companies and tourists of countries shifting to the right world-wide which will be focused' targets in Africa by focused Islamic Militants in Africa.
Africa in general will attract 'wanted' criminals and terrorists as corruption is rampant and the tracking infrastructure is not as sophisticated as first world countries.
South Africa will continue to attract people from war-torn Africa. South Africa could experience an increase in Xenophobic attacks and possibly increased higher violent crime by migrants.
In South Africa there would be no pro-gay or woman rights demonstrations, but aggressive violent demonstrations politically motivated and possibly stimulated by embedded organized crime and militants.
Demonstrations at Universities in neighborhoods could be used by neighborhood gangs to enrich themselves. Under the guise of student demonstrations local business would suffer from damage and theft but would cash - cow the gangster’s wallets.
Demonstrations at companies in the neighborhood could constituent the same impact and subsequently local gangs could motivate workers in the company to set the stage for such, for example, wage disputes, cause-boycotts and riots.
Impact world-wide in 2017 of';
Increase in many-to-one attacks on right winged supporters and counter attacks by nationalists on left wingers, as well as, Attacks on USA tourists abroad.
Increase in demonstrations turning into violent riots
Increase in workplace violence, bullying and blackmail
Increased number of lone wolf attacks (active shooters). It is possible that there will increased incidents that involve knives and beheading inside the USA, and for sure outside the USA.
Insider threat especially especially by radicalized personnel in the USA or personnel working in USA branded interests abroad. Reason being is already the USA has experienced the impact of a security guard and military colonel that killed and maimed.
Increased number of security personnel. Recruitment of radicals, whereas the security personnel are the major threat, as they would have easy access by wearing a uniform and an access card.
With the increased demonstrations and Riots of left winged orientated groups will motivate Right winged counter aggressive response by way of the same in such of harassment of Muslim innocents that will drive them to polarized neighborhoods.
Growth in size of polarized neighborhoods and even more so extreme No-Go neighborhoods, rape of woman, trafficking of woman and children, with lone wolf and small attack teams working on their own or in concert with others.
Increased number of insider attacks by radicalized lone wolves
Furthermore, there will be an increase of small attack teams working in concert with others at the same time or soon after an attack. Even though these teams may work independently, they could be activated in unison by way of media. If an attack takes place in one city then the media will cover the incident and other teams would be notified within minutes via media exposure and react accordingly.
To mitigate the impact Security Managers and personnel have to increase their skill base with relevant knowledge in-line with the current challenges in theater to mitigate against collateral damage.
What is just as important, is that new challenges in all or specific regions of interest can manifest in seconds and rapidly expand to other locations. Subsequently, a heightened state of situational awareness is critical to what is going on the ground right here and now and, reaction speed is crucial to mitigate with appropriate skill-craft.
Skills that are relevant now to mitigate the current challenges in theater
Managing demonstrations and riots for both nationalists and different cultures
Crowd control: Negotiating with the leaders of demonstrating groups.
The negotiator that can read the other better is the one that derives more out of the negotiation. There are times when you may have to disguise your true emotions especially if you are hostage negotiator. One should consider that the negotiation with demonstrators is hostage negotiation as the lives of others are in the hands of both parties.
You have no idea who can read you. Your pet hates, weaknesses, strengths and even when you are lying is on full public view to those who can read you. Peoples’ lives depend on the ability to hide their true emotions and intentions when negotiating with the leader of demonstrations. The demonstrating negotiators may not believe any promises or threats that could be used to quell a demonstration, subsequently, prompting aggressive behavior without ever considering of a peaceful solution.
Cultural Diversity: It does not particularly benefit by just adding to your skill-craft 'cultural diversity' as one should know how does one use the knowledge to identify the difference between cultural conduct and cultural communication to gather reliable information and manage emotions. This knowledge is also used for; assess and to mitigate the risk implications for managing people and incidents, close protection and investigations.
A very good example is: Someone please inform the security of President Elect Trump or himself that it does not help build relationships with South Americans or Turkey when he constantly displays the hand sign for the USA sign of [A - Okay], He may be trying to tell the USA people that all is good, but he is calling millions of people assholes or homosexuals
Polarized neighborhoods: policing and managing such neighborhoods. Specific methods to recruit and place only staff with skill-craft in-line with such. Unskilled staff could incite incidents as they could be misinterpret gestures or be misunderstood.
Companies to select non-bias or racist staff but people may lie or hide their true emotions to get the jobs in stores close to or in the polarized neighborhoods.
Recruitment and vetting of staff that could land up being an insider threat if they are bias, racist or even if they are part of a militant group or organized crime and on mission.
Identify a person that could be manipulated by extortion or blackmailed to working on the inside on a mission, or part in concert with a militant organization, or organized crime.
Detecting staff being radicalized or becoming xenophobic
Managing workplace violence such as bullying
Handling disputes with clients, victims or other issues with foreign nationals or other cultures.
Selecting the right security service or sub-contractors with the right mental attitude and consider skills that would mitigate the risk with current challenges.
Manage and evaluate drills for operations and mobilization
Identify if staff are being abused in their homes by migrants from war torn countries that have been adopted or from various religious extremist cultures that support honor killings. This is a marked increase of domestic violent crime.
Most importantly, gathering reliable information as staff may lie, hide or share information for their own agenda or to safeguard others.
Decision making must be based on reliable information.
SPI - Situation - Position - Implications
Conclusion: Situation : It is not the weapon that kills, rapes or creates havoc it is people! The Human factor should not be considered as the weak link but the strongest asset and security weapon as they could gather reliable information and do mitigate the risk. Therefore, the major security investment will be in the recruitment and development of people by way of specific skills.
Position: You are now in a position of gathering reliable information which is key, as one must consider historic data, the current challenges and paying attention to what is happening on the ground right here-and-now which is in theater.
Implications: Not knowing the true situation and position that you are really in could cause collateral damage as professionals are then unaware of the issues or threat in theater.
By not being situational aware - then proactive decisions cannot be made - and untimely reaction could enhance the casualty of collateral damages. Loss of Life - and Assets
Security Success depends on the level of situational awareness of the decision makerson the ground and the reaction speed.
Solution: Any skill training must contain part of the curriculum must be focused on the ability to gather usable and reliable information and manage emotions. Consequently, deception detection skills taking cultural connotations into account is the critical core skill over and above all others.
Conclusion for 2017. We are in a global village that is rapidly reacting and impacting the lives of many. There must be an open budget for training Quick Short Learning Programs to identify and mitigate risks that could be life impacting or life & death incidents.
***Sponsored by ISIO Accredited MiM Human Investigation Management
ISIO Accredited SAIS Endorsed SAIS Evaluation and Endorsement Committee for MiM – Human Investigation Management
Head of Evaluation Committee: Prof Kris Pillay FIS[UNISA] (SA).