It is imperatively important to underline the fact that recently published National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015 outlines global security environment as the most unpredictable. The document foresees current security threats on continental level and highlights the list of countries and regions different from the previous ones.
According to the rank of the US security documents, the first that comes to mind is the National Security Strategy (NSS) regarded as a highly significant document delineating wide-ranging goals of a nation. In the second place, comes the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and in theory, it relates to the defense role in implementing the strategy underlined in the NSS.
Finally, step down on the third layer comes the National Military Strategy (NMS), which will be discussed below. In essence, (NMS) highlights the role of military in order to support NDS and NSS. Moreover, emphasizing on roles of airpower, sea power and the land-power.
A new strategy tends to be more concerned with the trend that the global disorder has significantly increased and the worldwide security environment is the most unpredictable. Nevertheless, the National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2011 indicates evolution of a “multi-nodal” world characterized more by shifting, interest-driven coalitions based on diplomatic, military, and economic power, than by rigid security competition between opposing blocs.
Former strategy stressed on institutionalizing reform of the Defense Department and rebalancing the urgent needs with the preparation for the future challenges. Moreover, 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) considered as an important stride for this goal. However, a new document mainly focuses on international security challenges and threats, rather than domestic reforms in a defense sector.
Furthermore, international security priorities have moderately changed. In the past, the Middle Eastern region with the nuclear-armed Iran was one of the top threats to global security whilst in South Central Asia Afghanistan comes readily as the sanctuary of al Qaida and the epicenter of violent extremism.
In general, 9/11 rhetorics seem gradually loosened and a new National Military Strategy 2015 (NMS) addresses the need to counter revisionist states that are challenging international norms as well as extremist organizations (VEOs) that are undermining trans-regional security. With reference to the US foreign policy strategic shift, certainly Asia is far more attractive. For instance, strengthening alliances and deepening security cooperation with Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand and India are essential in order to maintain regional peace.
I will try below to illustrate five important security trends based on a new military strategy.
5 Security Trends from a New Military Strategy:
The US is more inclined to foster partnerships and alliances around the globe, hence from the military strategy point of view, success will increasingly depend on interconnection and support of the U.S. military instrument to other instruments of power. Nonetheless, in the past, the U.S. policy defined their role as an enabling capacity in order to assist other nations to achieve security goals that can advance common interests. It is clear that the U.S. globally has repositioned and become more explicit about its security intentions in a new strategy.
Presumably, importance of state actors, especially beyond the NATO and European Union will increase. For example, the so-called future newcomers in North Treaty Atlantic Organization - Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova could be secured in order to avoid political pressures from Russia. US political presence and support in Eastern Europe, especially by ‘instruments of power’ is expected.
The future of conflicts appraised as the long-standing processes, which are not quickly resolved. New battlefields considered more technically challenging and the control of escalation assessed as more and more difficult and significant. In addition, strategic environment perceived much accelerated, due to globalization phenomena resulting in demographic shifts, technological diffusion and competition for resources. In terms of natural resources, the former one addressed these issues by illustrating specific cases on - scarcity of water, especially in the Middle East, Africa and South Central Asia, which is challenging for governments.
Finally, uncertain global climate change emphasized in terms of natural disasters and the weak ability of developing states to respond to it adequately. For instance, floods in Tbilisi - capital of Georgia, resulted in escape of wild animals after intensive water flow of river Vere. Governmental response to this natural disaster was not as adequate, rapid and effective. Consequently, the total toll of deaths numbered to 19 people.
In the former U.S strategy, non-state actors such as violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and non-state adversaries in the area of WMD proliferation and nuclear terrorism were clearly emphasized and it is still kept as a top priority, however a new strategy stressing more on state-actors, especially, those states that are challenging international norms have been evolved. In this regard, Russia breached the sovereignty of its neighbors and the goal of achievement for political establishment of Russia is perceived through the prism of military power. Russia’s military actions are considered as violations of numerous agreements it has signed. Furthermore, Moscow was committed to act in accordance with international norms after signature of these agreements. In general, Russia's political attitude towards neighboring countries will strengthen US-Georgian ties and the US-Eastern European security cooperation. As a result, after the Ukrainian scenario, the West assured that Russia is still a big threat for European Security.
As regards Iran, it poses strategic challenges to international community, because of its nuclear and missile ambitions. Actions of Tehran have been identified as the source of destabilization for many nations. From geographical perspective, regional instability could affect the security environment and economic growth in countries of Caucasus.
In the list of the violent extremist organizations (VEOs) beside the al Qaida, the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) are the sources of regional destabilization. Such radical groups serve to radicalize populations, spread the violence, and leverage terror to impose their visions of societal organization. As a result, the number of Georgian nationals recruited by ISIL on the religious grounds and the human traffic flow comes from Caucasus to Middle East. Moreover, there are fighters from all over the world in ISIL - however large number of citizens of Northern Caucasus and Georgia are in an alarming state. Furthermore, ISIL declared formation of a new governorate, which means that ISIL will probably span on several regions of Georgia and the Russian Federation. In this regard, tightening of the US-Georgian alliance is to be projected in order to tackle and take preventive measures towards this issue.
About the Author
Beka Kiria works at the Ministry of Defence of Georgia in the capacity of a Senior Specialist in Defence Policy and Planning Department. He's practically engaged in the development of national defence and security documents. In advance, he focuses on legislative review in the defence and security sector, including the composition of written suggestions before the law passes to the parliament.
Earlier, he worked as a legal researcher for the project of the European Council on comparative analyses for the implementation protocol of the Budapest Convention on Xenophobia and Racism.
He graduated from the University of Leicester, UK with a degree in Public and International Law.
Also, he studied International Relations at the Cambridge Art and Science College.